The Not-So-United Kingdom?

In 2014, when the Scottish people voted in a referendum on whether to leave the United Kingdom, Adam Cubak wasn’t at all sure that Scotland should be its own country.

That referendum failed. But since the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union in 2016, known as “Brexit,” Cubak has changed his mind.

“Brexit has made me want independence more,” says Cubak, 21, a senior at the University of Glasgow. “Now I feel like Scottish independence is inevitable.”

After four long years of negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union, Britain’s exit from the E.U. is starting to take effect. But Brexit is having unintended ripple effects within the U.K. In Scotland, support for Scottish independence is growing. And in Northern Ireland, the Brexit deal has inflamed old tensions that date back more than a century.

This is causing many to ask whether Brexit might ultimately lead the United Kingdom—England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland (see map)—to break apart.

“Brexit has not created new tensions, but it’s unearthed and exacerbated existing tensions in both Scotland and Northern Ireland,” says Amanda Sloat of the Brookings Institution, a think tank in Washington, D.C. “Brexit has the potential to be a turning point in both places.”

Charles Kupchan of the Council on Foreign Relations is even more blunt: “It’s completely conceivable that over the next decade or so, the United Kingdom will not hold together.”

In 2014, the Scottish people voted in a referendum on whether to leave the United Kingdom. At the time, Adam Cubak wasn’t at all sure that Scotland should be its own country.

That referendum failed. Then, in 2016, the U.K. voted to leave the European Union. That move become known as “Brexit.” It’s made Cubak change his mind.

“Brexit has made me want independence more,” says Cubak, 21, a senior at the University of Glasgow. “Now, I feel like Scottish independence is inevitable.”

The negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union have stretched over the last four years. Now, Britain’s exit from the E.U. is starting to take effect. But Brexit is having unintended ripple effects within the United Kingdom. The U.K. is made up of England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland (see map). In Scotland, support for Scottish independence is growing. And in Northern Ireland, the Brexit deal has worsened old tensions that date back more than a century.

This is causing many to ask whether Brexit might ultimately lead the United Kingdom to break apart.

“Brexit has not created new tensions, but it’s unearthed and exacerbated existing tensions in both Scotland and Northern Ireland,” says Amanda Sloat of the Brookings Institution, a think tank in Washington, D.C. “Brexit has the potential to be a turning point in both places.”

Charles Kupchan of the Council on Foreign Relations is even more blunt: “It’s completely conceivable that over the next decade or so, the United Kingdom will not hold together.”

In 2016, 52 percent of voters in the U.K. chose to leave the European Union, a federation of European countries that share free trade and open borders (see “What is Brexit?”). But support for leaving the E.U., which was formally established in 1993, was not uniform across the U.K.: In both Scotland and Northern Ireland, a majority of voters wanted to remain part of the E.U.

Brexit became official in January, and the final details on how trade and borders will be managed are still being worked out. But already there are signs of trouble in both Scotland and Northern Ireland.

In Scotland, Brexit has deepened support for independence, which has long been fueled by Scots’ pride in their separate identity. After Scotland rejected breaking away from the U.K. in the 2014 referendum, most people thought the issue was settled. But that was before Britain voted to leave the European Union. Support for the E.U. is high in Scotland, and 62 percent of Scots opposed leaving the E.U. Many feel they are being forced to go along with it.

“Without doubt, Brexit has increased support for [Scottish] independence, especially among the young,” says Timothy Peace, a politics professor at the University of Glasgow.

Now, for the first time, polls are consistently showing that a majority of Scots support independence. Scottish elections will be held in May, and the Scottish National Party, which favors independence, is expected to gain ground. That will increase the pressure for another referendum on Scottish independence, experts say.

In 2016, 52 percent of voters in the U.K. chose to leave the European Union. The E.U. is a federation of European countries that share free trade and open borders (see “What is Brexit?”). It was formally established in 1993. Support for leaving the E.U. wasn’t the same across the U.K. In both Scotland and Northern Ireland, a majority of voters wanted to remain part of the E.U.

Brexit became official in January. Some final details are still unsettled, including the management of trade and borders. But already there are signs of trouble in both Scotland and Northern Ireland.

The Scots take pride in their separate identity. That’s long fueled calls for independence. Now, Brexit has deepened support for Scottish independence. After Scotland rejected breaking away from the U.K. in the 2014 referendum, most people thought the issue was settled. But that was before Britain voted to leave the European Union. Support for the E.U. is high in Scotland. In fact, 62 percent of Scots were against leaving the E.U. Many feel they are being forced to go along with it.

“Without doubt, Brexit has increased support for [Scottish] independence, especially among the young,” says Timothy Peace, a politics professor at the University of Glasgow.

Now, for the first time, polls are consistently showing that a majority of Scots support independence. Scottish elections will be held in May. This time around, the Scottish National Party is expected to gain ground. The party favors independence. That will increase the pressure for another referendum on Scottish independence, experts say.